Reality check: Unpacking the $150BGLP-1 market forecasts

EndPoints, June 11th, 2025: Elizabeth Cairns, Kyle LaHucik

Market expectations for GLP-1 agonists have been high for some time. But in the past year, sales forecasts have gone stratospheric.

Last month, Morgan Stanley Research upped its 2035 peak estimate for the obesity drug market to $150 billion, a whopping $45 billion jump from a prior projection. In September, analysts from Morningstar appraised the total GLP-1 market at $217 billion in 2031, adding that 68% could come from weight loss indications.

Are these eye-popping figures remotely realistic? Novo Nordisk, a pioneer in GLP-1 drug development, was forced to downgrade sales projections for its assets in May, leading in part to the ouster of CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen. That said, its only market competitor, Eli Lilly, has been gaining sales momentum in recent quarters.

Back Bay managing director, Peter Bak, weighs in.